2025 Kentucky Derby Betting Picks & Field Guide

Quick Picks and Odds Overview

The 151st Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a wide-open betting race with a mix of American standouts and international talent. Below are our top betting picks and key storylines for Derby 2025:

• Win Pick – Journalism (3‑1): The likely favorite, Journalism is an undefeated colt who swept California’s prep circuit. He combines tactical speed with a powerful finish, making him the horse to beat.
• Place (Each-Way) – Sovereignty (5‑1): Florida’s star 3-year-old, Sovereignty, brings proven class (Fountain of Youth winner, Florida Derby runner-up) and should be charging late. Offers solid value if the favorite falters.
• Exotic Bet Booster – Sandman (6‑1): Arkansas Derby champion Sandman is an off-the-pace runner peaking at the right time. Use him in exactas/trifectas alongside the top choices. Also consider Japanese invader Luxor Café (15‑1) as a wildcard to spice up trifectas, given his unknown ceiling after 4 straight wins in Japan​.

Current Odds: Major U.S. sportsbooks have installed Journalism as a mild favorite at 3‑1, with Sovereignty (5‑1) and Sandman (6‑1) close behind. The next tier includes Burnham Square and Rodriguez around 12‑1. A full list of the 20-horse field and morning-line odds is shown below:

Odds are approximate consensus lines from leading sportsbooks.

Trends & Angles: This Derby has plenty of storylines for bettors to chew on. Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert returns from a Derby ban with two contenders (Citizen Bull and Rodriguez) as he seeks a record seventh win​. Meanwhile, Japanese horses continue their Triple Crown foray – Admire Daytona (UAE Derby winner) and Luxor Café (Japan Road qualifier) bring an international flair and could make history as Japan’s first Derby winner​. Legendary 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas saddles American Promise in a bid for his fifth Derby victory​, and record-setting trainer Steve Asmussen, still seeking his first Derby win after 26 tries​, has two shots (Tiztastic and Publisher). Notably, Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street was ruled out days ago with an injury – a late twist that allowed longshot Render Judgement into the field. Last year’s Derby was won by an 18‑1 upset (Mystik Dan)​, and with this deep field, 2025 could likewise deliver healthy payouts. Bettors should monitor the early pace setup – with several speed horses drawn inside, a hot pace could set the table for the strong closers in the field.

The Contenders: Runner-by-Runner Profiles

Below we break down each confirmed Derby runner (in post position order) with their connections, recent form, pedigree notes, and an expert read on their chances.

1. Citizen Bull (20‑1) – Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia

Profile: Citizen Bull was the champion 2-year-old male of 2024, having won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita as a juvenile. Trained by Bob Baffert, he enters the Derby looking to rebound from a lackluster spring – he disappointed in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but has been training sharply for his Hall-of-Fame trainer. Jockey Martin Garcia reunites with Baffert; Garcia’s last Derby mount was in 2015 (3rd on Dortmund)​, and he returns after a 10-year Derby absence.

Recent Form: His 3-year-old preps did not go as planned – after a needed tune-up, he was a non-factor in the Santa Anita Derby. However, his back class and Baffert’s confidence suggest that race might not reflect his true ability. As a juvenile, he flashed early speed and resilience, attributes that could resurface on Derby day.

Pedigree: By Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Citizen Bull is bred to excel at classic distances. His dam is by Uncle Mo, adding even more stamina and class to his bloodlines. On paper, 1¼ miles should be within his scope.

Assessment: A high-risk, high-reward wildcard. If the 2-year-old version of Citizen Bull shows up, he has a puncher’s chance – few in this field have a Grade 1 win like he does. But his recent dull efforts temper enthusiasm. From post 1, expect Garcia to get him involved early. If he can secure position without expending too much energy, he’s an intriguing longshot to hang on for a piece. Otherwise, he could fade when the real running begins. Bettors should demand value (20‑1 or higher) given the form concerns.

2. Neoequos (30‑1) – Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr., Jockey: Edgard Zayas

Profile: Neoequos is a speed-centric colt who has been knocking on the door in the Florida prep races. He ran third in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, showing early zip before yielding late. While not a marquee name, he fought his way onto the Derby bubble and drew into the field after a late defection. (His connections are new to the Derby scene – trainer and jockey to be confirmed at entry time.)

Recent Form: In the Florida Derby, Neoequos set or pressed the pace and held on well for third behind Sovereignty. He has yet to win a stakes, but his consistency against top company is notable. His speed figures are solid, though a notch below the elite. One question: can he carry his speed an extra furlong at Churchill?

Pedigree: His pedigree suggests speed over stamina – notably, he’s by a sire known for sprint/mile progeny. The stamina influences in his dam’s side are modest. This aligns with what we’ve seen on the track: Neoequos can blast off early but is unproven at 1⅛ miles and beyond.

Assessment: A front-running longshot who will likely be part of the early pace. If the Derby unfolds with a historically slow pace (rare in a 20-horse scrum), he could hang around longer than expected. More likely, though, he’ll be a pace casualty in the final quarter-mile as more proven stayers pass him. Bettors looking for a big payout might use him underneath in superfectas, hoping he can cling to a minor award, but a win would be a shock given his stamina questions.

3. Final Gambit (30‑1) – Trainer: Ben Colebrook, Jockey: Declan Cannon

Profile: One of the more surprising entrants, Final Gambit punched his Derby ticket with a 50-1 upset in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. That race, run on a synthetic surface, showcased his wicked late kick as he mowed down the field in the stretch. He’s a lightly raced colt whose connections are enjoying their first Derby runner. Final Gambit will try to translate that synthetic form to the Churchill Downs dirt.

Recent Form: His Jeff Ruby victory was his first stakes win and came against expectations. Prior to that, Final Gambit had only a maiden win and an uninspiring try on dirt. But at Turfway he put it all together, closing from last to first. The strength of that field is debatable (Turfway preppers are often overlooked), but the manner of victory – a strong finish – catches the eye.

Pedigree: He’s bred more for turf/synthetic, which is why he blossomed at Turfway. Sired by an English Channel-line stallion (known for turf routers), Final Gambit may actually relish 1¼ miles. The dirt question mark looms large, however – his bloodlines suggest he might prefer grass. If he handles the surface, stamina should not be an issue.

Assessment: A deep closer and true wild card. Final Gambit will be hoping for a meltdown up front to have any chance. He’s likely to drop far back early and try to pass tiring horses late. The transition to dirt is the big unknown – if he doesn’t like the kickback or footing, his race could be over early. Given his massive step up in class, he’s one of the longest shots in the field. That said, stranger things have happened (remember Rich Strike at 80-1 in 2022). Use him only in the bottom of superfectas if you’re feeling adventurous. A finish in mid-pack would already be a moral victory for this late bloomer.

4. Rodriguez (12‑1) – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith

Profile: Rodriguez is one of two Bob Baffert trainees in this Derby and brings brilliant early speed to the table. He secured his spot by winning the Wood Memorial (G2) in New York with a bold, front-running effort. A striking chestnut colt, Rodriguez has the hallmarks of a Baffert Derby horse – tactical speed, physical presence, and a Hall-of-Fame rider in Mike Smith. At 12‑1, he’s viewed as a second-tier contender but has the credentials to outrun those odds.

Recent Form: After hitting the board in two graded stakes out West, Baffert shipped Rodriguez east for the Wood, and he delivered in style. He broke sharply, dictated the pace, and drew off to a convincing win over a full field. That performance stamped him as a legitimate Derby threat. Baffert has expertly used the Wood as a springboard before (2018’s Derby winner Justify prepped with a Santa Anita Derby, but others like Bodemeister dominated the Arkansas route). With a five-week layoff since the Wood, Rodriguez should be fresh.

Pedigree: He’s royally-bred for dirt routes. Sired by Quality Road (a top-class sire of classic-distance horses) out of a mare from the A.P. Indy line, Rodriguez boasts a pedigree packed with stamina and class. No concerns about the Derby distance on paper.

Connections: Mike “Big Money” Smith takes the reins​. This will be Smith’s record 29th Derby mount, and at age 59 he’s as savvy as ever. He won the Derby in 2005 (Giacomo at 50‑1) and 2018 (Justify)​, showing he can work magic with both longshots and favorites. The Baffert-Smith team is a proven one-two punch on the biggest stages.

Assessment: A serious pace player with a chance to steal it. Rodriguez will likely break running and try to navigate a forward position by the first turn. If he shakes loose on an easy lead, watch out – he could be hard to reel in (think Bodemeister in 2012, who nearly took them all the way). However, drawn in post 4 with other speed around, he’ll need to avoid a suicidal duel. The key for Smith will be to moderate the fractions. Rodriguez’s Wood Memorial win suggests he can carry his speed 1⅛ miles; the extra furlong is the big question. He’s a must-use in exotic wagers given Baffert’s Derby prowess and the colt’s sharp form. Winning outright is possible if the race shape favors him, though there’s a concern faster closers may run him down in deep stretch.

5. American Promise (30‑1) – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez

Profile: Trained by living legend D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise is a speedy chestnut colt who brings a different route into the Derby. He dominated last fall’s Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on turf, then transitioned to dirt this spring. Lukas, a four-time Derby-winning trainer, is not shy about taking a shot if a horse is doing well, and American Promise rewarded that faith by securing enough points to get in. This colt will likely be one of the early pace setters in the Derby.

Recent Form: American Promise has shown versatility. He romped in the 1¼-mile Virginia Derby on turf (an unusual prep path), showcasing stamina, then proved his speed on dirt in a minor stakes race at Oaklawn, and later in the Tampa Bay Derby trail. While he didn’t win a major Derby prep, he consistently flashed front-running speed and hit the board to accumulate points. His last outing was a solid third in the Arkansas Derby prep scene, which was enough to qualify. He arrives at Churchill fit and ready.

Pedigree: By a son of Candy Ride out of a mare from the Unbridled’s Song line, American Promise has a pedigree blending speed and classic influences. Notably, his damside produced some strong middle-distance turf horses, explaining his early success on grass. There’s a hint of stamina (Candy Ride’s offspring can stay) – his Virginia Derby victory over 10 furlongs on turf suggests he can handle the Derby distance on dirt if good enough.

Assessment: A sentimental longshot with notable connections. Lukas at age 89 continues to “pull a rabbit out of his hat” occasionally, and this colt could outrun expectations. Under jockey Nik Juarez (riding in his first Derby​), expect American Promise to be hustled from post 5 to either set or force the pace. His best chance is to turn the Derby into a stamina test – use his bottomless stride to string the field out. The concern is that several others also want the lead, and a battle would compromise them all. If the pace melts down, American Promise will likely be one of the first to tire. However, if somehow he gets loose on moderate fractions, he’s dangerous to hang around for a piece. Betting-wise, he’s hard to recommend on the win end given class questions, but fans will cheer if the old coach Lukas is in front turning for home. Use him sparingly in superfectas (mostly in 3rd/4th slots) as a pace factor who might hold on for a minor award.

6. Admire Daytona (30‑1) – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire

Profile: Admire Daytona is one of two Japanese-trained horses in this Derby. He earned his spot by winning the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai by a nose, showing tremendous grit. Trained by Yukihiro Kato, this colt has followed the path of recent Japanese invaders (Crown Pride, Derma Sotogake) who used UAE as a springboard to Kentucky. Top Japan-based jockey Christophe Lemaire will ride. Admire Daytona brings a blend of Japanese and American bloodlines and is a intriguing X-factor in the field.

Recent Form: In the UAE Derby, Admire Daytona went straight to the lead and set a strong pace over the Meydan sand. He was headed in deep stretch but fought back gamely to prevail by a nose. It was a gutsy performance at 1³/₁₆ miles. Prior to that, he’d been a solid performer on the Japan Road, though not a standout – his Dubai win was a breakout. He’s been rested since late March and shipped to Churchill early to acclimate (Japanese connections have become adept at preparing for U.S. races).

Pedigree: As his name might hint, he hails from the famous Japanese “Admire” lineage. Sired by Duramente (a Japanese Derby winner) out of a Deep Impact mare, he’s royally bred in Japan. This pedigree screams stamina and class – Deep Impact is a legendary distance influence. The main question is dirt vs. turf: these lines excel on turf, but Japanese breeding in recent years has produced versatile horses that handle dirt well (e.g., Mind Your Biscuits line influence). His UAE run suggests dirt is not an issue.

Assessment: A tough front-runner who will attempt to carry Japan’s flag to an historic win. If you like Admire Daytona, you’re essentially betting that the third time’s the charm for the recent wave of Japanese Derby attempts (the last two years saw their horses run respectably but off the board). He’ll likely be forwardly placed from post 6 – perhaps not gunning for the lead, but close-up behind the fastest Americans. Lemaire is known for his tactical acumen and will try to time his move for the stretch. One thing in Admire Daytona’s favor: he’s already proven at ~1³/₁₆ miles, so the Derby distance might actually be to his liking if he settles. The knock is the overall speed figures – historically, UAE Derby winners have not matched the speed of U.S. preppers. At 30‑1, he’s an intriguing longshot. Including him in exotics could pay off if he runs like he did in Dubai. A win would still be a surprise (and a monumental achievement for Japan), but don’t be shocked if this colt outruns many of the U.S. longshots and crashes the superfecta.

7. Luxor Café (15‑1) – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira

Profile: The second international raider, Luxor Café comes via the Japan Road to the Derby. This dark bay colt has won four straight races in Japan, including a listed stakes win (the Fukuryu at Nakayama), which clinched his invitation to Louisville​. Trained by Noriyuki Hori (one of Japan’s top trainers, making his first Derby appearance​) and ridden by star jockey Joao “Magic Man” Moreira​, Luxor Café brings a potent late-running style. He’s somewhat of a mystery horse for U.S. fans but is getting buzz as a live outsider.

Recent Form: Luxor Café has been unstoppable in his last four starts, climbing the class ladder in Japan. In the 1-mile Fukuryu Stakes (on dirt), he unleashed a big stretch run to win comfortably, demonstrating a strong turn of foot on the dirt surface​. His connections skipped the UAE Derby and instead rested him for the Kentucky Derby, indicating confidence that they have a quality horse. All his wins have come at a mile to 1⅛ miles; the Derby will be his first try at 1¼ miles, but given how he finishes, that could actually help him.

Pedigree: He’s by American Pharoah, the U.S. Triple Crown winner, which instantly makes his pedigree noteworthy. American Pharoah’s progeny have had success on both dirt and turf internationally. The dam side (Japanese-bred mare) adds stamina. Interestingly, he has a mix of American and Japanese blood that could give him the best of both worlds – tactical speed and late endurance. This cross suggests the Derby distance is within reach, and he’s bred to handle dirt well.

Assessment: A major threat to hit the board if he transitions his form. Luxor Café will likely be unhurried early from post 7. Joao Moreira, known for his finesse, may take back and save ground, then try to weave through the field in the stretch. That means he’s dependent on trip and pace – he needs an honest tempo to set up his late charge. If he gets it, watch him fly late. The question is class: he hasn’t faced horses of this caliber yet, but visually he has looked the part. Bettors have to decide if 15‑1 is enough value on the unknown. Given Japan’s recent successes worldwide (including a win in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Distaff and a strong showing in last year’s Derby preps), Luxor Café cannot be dismissed. He’s arguably Japan’s best chance yet to make an impact in the Derby. We recommend using him in exactas and trifectas; a win isn’t out of the question if he gets a dream setup. This colt’s strong kick and unbeaten streak make him one of the most intriguing horses in the race​.

8. Journalism (3‑1) – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli

Profile: The morning-line favorite, Journalism has done little wrong in his career. This bay colt is undefeated in stakes company, sweeping three consecutive prep races in California. Trained by Michael McCarthy (who famously won the 2021 Preakness with Rombauer) and set to be ridden by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism combines a high-cruising speed with the ability to kick home strongly. He earned the most qualifying points on the Road to the Derby and will break from post 8, a favorable draw for his running style.

Recent Form: Journalism has steadily ascended to the top of the crop. He burst onto the scene by dominating the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in December, winning by 3½ lengths in his stakes debut. At 3, he captured the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and then the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in impressive fashion. In the Santa Anita Derby, he sat just off the pace and drew off late, confirming his status as the West Coast’s best. He hasn’t had a true battle in the stretch yet – each win was by open lengths – which speaks to his superiority so far. His speed figures and BRIS ratings are at or near the top of this field.

Pedigree: A son of Curlin, Journalism has an enviable lineage. Curlin was Horse of the Year and has become a top-class sire of route horses (including a Belmont winner)​. The dam side is also notable – his dam Mopotism was a Grade 2 winner who placed in multiple Grade 1s​. Interestingly, Mopotism ran in the Kentucky Oaks, so this family has Derby week experience. With Uncle Mo as his damsire, Journalism gets a blend of stamina (Curlin) and miler speed (Uncle Mo). The pedigree screams classic distances; going 1¼ miles should be well within his scope.

Connections: Jockey Umberto Rispoli will make his third Derby start​. Rispoli, a standout from Italy who became a star on the Southern California circuit, is seeking a breakthrough on the big stage. He knows Journalism well and has been aboard for all his stakes wins. Michael McCarthy is a former assistant to Todd Pletcher who has proven himself in recent years; he has a small stable, so a Derby win with Journalism would be huge.

Assessment: The horse to beat. Journalism brings the perfect blend of speed, stamina, and tractability. He can lead if no one else wants to (though in this field, someone likely will), or he can stalk the pace and pounce – a very useful style in a 20-horse scrum. From gate 8, Rispoli can survey the inside speed and choose a spot just behind the leaders. On paper, Journalism has no real weaknesses: he’s fast, he handles two turns beautifully, and he’s won over different tracks and distances. If one were to nitpick, he has yet to face adversity – he’s never been passed in the stretch or had to re-rally. How will he respond if, say, he’s headed at the top of the lane? It’s a minor question, but worth considering in a race as tough as the Derby. Overall, he deserves top billing. Many bettors will single Journalism on top, and justifiably so. At 3‑1, he won’t make you rich, but he looks the part of a legitimate favorite. Include him in all wagers – even if you try to beat him in the win pool for value, you don’t want to leave him off exactas and triples. The most likely outcome sees Journalism in the winner’s circle, giving McCarthy and Rispoli their first Derby triumph.

9. Burnham Square (12‑1) – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr.

Profile: Burnham Square is the top points earner on the Derby trail, a testament to his excellent prep season. A fast-closing gelding, he blossomed over the winter after adding blinkers, breaking his maiden and then rattling off two major wins. Trained by Ian Wilkes (who as an assistant helped win the Derby with Street Sense in 2007) and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., Burnham Square represents the midwest contingent and brings a powerful late punch to the race.

Recent Form: Blinkers on – and away he went. Burnham Square announced himself by winning the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream in early February after that equipment change. He then validated it in a big way by winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, coming from off the pace to mow down East Avenue in the final stride. That Blue Grass effort, against a large field, showed he can handle traffic and a mile-and-an-eighth distance. His preparatory works at Churchill have reportedly been solid. As a gelding, he has a laid-back temperament and plenty of focus – useful attributes amid the Derby chaos.

Pedigree: He’s by Blame (who famously won the Breeders’ Cup Classic) out of a Giant’s Causeway mare. This is a classic-distance pedigree rich in stamina. Notably, Blame himself was a strong closer, and Burnham Square seems to have inherited that closing kick. As a gelding, he won’t be a breeding prospect, but that’s a plus for racing – his connections have aimed him squarely at the Derby and beyond, without any distractions. His lineage suggests 10 furlongs is ideal.

Connections: Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. won the Derby last year on an 18‑1 shot (Mystik Dan)​ and the Oaks on the same weekend, pulling off a rare double. He now seeks to become the first jockey to win back-to-back Derbies since Victor Espinoza did it in 2014-2015​. Hernandez is a patient rider – a good fit for Burnham Square’s style. Ian Wilkes is a respected horseman; this is his second Derby runner as head trainer, and he’d love to get his first win.

Assessment: A major contender and one of the best closers in the field. Burnham Square will likely drop towards the rear half early, then commence a rally as the field rounds the far turn. His Blue Grass win showed he can negotiate a tight finish and nail horses at the wire, which could come in handy in a Derby that might have many bunched at the finish. The pace scenario will be key – he needs an honest to fast pace to unleash his full effect. With several front-runners signed on, that’s a realistic scenario. At 12‑1, he offers value as a win play if you’re skeptical of the shorter-priced favorites. One slight concern: he has done his best running at Gulfstream and Keeneland, which have shorter stretches; Churchill’s long stretch will give him ample time to run but also gives others time to fight back. Still, Burnham Square seems to be peaking at the right time and has the stamina and mindset to handle this challenge. Don’t leave him out of any trifecta or superfecta tickets – he’s very capable of running into the top three.

10. Grande (20‑1) – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez

Profile: Grande is a strapping bay colt trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez – a duo that has won multiple Derbies together (Always Dreaming in 2017, for one)​​. Overshadowed a bit by flashier rivals, Grande has been steadily improving. He hasn’t won a major prep, but he comes off a very encouraging runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) behind Rodriguez. Pletcher, a two-time Derby-winning trainer, knows how to get one to peak on the first Saturday in May, and Grande could be sitting on a big effort.

Recent Form: After a winter campaign in Florida that saw mixed results, Grande really stepped forward in the Wood at Aqueduct. He pressed the pace and fought on gamely to finish second, clearly ahead of the rest of the field. That run stamped him as Derby-worthy. Earlier in the year, he was fourth in the Fountain of Youth behind Sovereignty, so he’s been facing top competition all along. His speed figures have climbed with each race – exactly what you want to see in a Derby prospect.

Pedigree: Grande is royally bred. By Curlin (same sire as Journalism, bringing stamina and class) out of a mare by Bernardini, he’s bred to run all day. Interestingly, his dam is a half-sister to a past Derby winner (Super Saver), which explains Pletcher’s interest (he trained Super Saver). The bottom line: Grande has classic bloodlines and should relish a mile and a quarter. The only knock is he hasn’t yet broken through at the graded stakes level, but pedigree suggests he has more to give.

Connections: Velazquez will be the only jockey in this Derby field with three Derby wins​ (he won in 2011, 2017, and 2020). The Hall of Famer is a master tactician and particularly adept at Churchill Downs. From post 10, expect “Johnny V” to place Grande in a stalking position – perhaps mid-pack, just behind the first flight of speed. Pletcher, for his part, has a record number of Derby starters over the years​ and knows how to have a horse primed for this race.

Assessment: A sleeper pick with solid credentials. Grande doesn’t have the headline-grabbing wins, but he has something many in here lack: consistency and a top-notch stamina pedigree. If you’re looking for a Pletcher longshot (a role filled by Commanding Curve at 37-1 finishing second in 2014, for example), Grande fits the mold. He’s likely to get a good trip – he’s tractable and doesn’t need the lead. The key will be whether he has that final gear in the stretch to go by the best of this group. In the Wood, he couldn’t catch Rodriguez, but he was making progress. With a more favorable pace and the longer distance, he could turn the tables. At 20‑1, Grande is an exactor and trifecta player’s friend – a must-use underneath at least. For win bettors, he’s an outsider with a puncher’s chance, especially if the track comes up wet (Curlin offspring often handle mud well). Don’t be surprised if Grande outruns his odds and crashes the superfecta.

11. Flying Mohawk (30‑1) – Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos

Profile: Flying Mohawk brings an unusual resume to the Derby – he has never raced on dirt. This chestnut colt did all his prep work on Turfway Park’s synthetic track, where he finished a strong second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). Trained by up-and-comer Whit Beckman and ridden by Joe Ramos, Flying Mohawk earned his way in with that runner-up effort but is something of a mystery on the main track. He is a dedicated closer, known for coming from far back in his races.

Recent Form: After winning an allowance at Turfway, Flying Mohawk took a shot in the Jeff Ruby at 52‑1 and shocked many by closing furiously to nab second, just a length behind Final Gambit. That effort showed he has quality, even if it was on a different surface. Beckman has said the horse has trained fine on dirt in the mornings, so they are rolling the dice at Churchill. Flying Mohawk has improved in each of his last few starts and certainly isn’t lacking fitness or foundation – he’s raced consistently through the winter.

Pedigree: His pedigree is actually quite dirt-oriented, which gives hope that he can translate his form. By Mohaymen (a Tapit sire) out of a mare by Ghostzapper, there’s plenty of dirt success in his lineage. The concern is that his running style and action were well-suited to synthetic – sometimes horses with big late kicks on all-weather tracks struggle to get the same traction on dirt. Additionally, his bloodlines hint he might prefer distances up to 1⅛ miles; the Derby trip is a new frontier.

Connections: Jockey Joe Ramos is riding in his first Derby​. He made his name on the Kentucky/Indiana circuit and is known for doing well at Turfway and Indiana Grand. It’s a big step up in class for him, but he has been the regular rider for Flying Mohawk and knows the horse’s tendencies. Trainer Whit Beckman, a Louisville native, actually had a Derby starter last year as well, so he’s quietly making a habit of getting horses to this race​. Beckman used to work for trainers like Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, so he has a strong background.

Assessment: A wildcard closer with significant questions to answer. Flying Mohawk will undoubtedly drop to the back early from post 11 – that’s his style. The faster and hotter the pace, the better his chances of passing tired horses late. The elephant in the room is the surface change. His own pedigree and training suggest he might handle dirt, but you never truly know until they race on it. At 30‑1, he’s an appealing bomb to sprinkle in superfectas, because if he does take to the dirt, he has the late speed to clunk up for 3rd or 4th. However, asking him to win is a tall order – he’d have to pass 19 others, something that rarely happens in the Derby without at least some prior dirt experience. In summary, Flying Mohawk is a fun longshot play underneath, especially if you expect a pace collapse. Just keep expectations in check; even his connections would likely be thrilled with a top-five finish in this spot.

12. East Avenue (20‑1) – Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco

Profile: East Avenue is a speedy chestnut colt who made a name for himself as a 2-year-old and has carried that form into his 3-year-old season. Trained by Brendan Walsh and to be ridden by Manny Franco, East Avenue was a Grade 1 winner at two and nearly added another Grade 1 at three, coming up a nose short in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has tactical speed and tends to race on or near the lead. If you like horses that will be in the thick of it from the start, East Avenue is one to consider.

Recent Form: Last fall, East Avenue captured the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, stamping himself as one of the top juveniles. This spring, he’s been solid if not spectacular. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he set a lively pace and just got nailed at the wire by Burnham Square. It was a heartbreaker, but still a strong performance that earned him a Derby slot. Earlier in the year, he ran respectably in the Tampa Bay Derby (notching a placing) but may have bounced a bit off that big 2-year-old campaign. Walsh freshened him up for Keeneland, and it nearly paid off. He seems to be back on an upward trend now.

Pedigree: He’s by Constitution, an exciting young sire who has produced classic distance horses (his son Tiz the Law won the Belmont at 1¼ miles, for example). The dam side is sprinkled with speed – his dam is by Into Mischief – which is likely why East Avenue shows so much early zip. The combination suggests he’s a true middle-distance horse; 1¼ miles is a question, as the furthest he’s run is 1⅛ miles (where he was caught late). So stamina at the Derby distance is the test. But class isn’t – he’s battle-tested in Grade 1 company.

Connections: Trainer Brendan Walsh has one prior Derby starter (Plus Que Parfait in 2019)​. He’s a capable trainer who’s won big races (including the 2020 Belmont with Sir Winston), so he knows how to prepare for a classic. Jockey Manny Franco is making his sixth Derby start​; he nearly won in 2020, finishing second on heavy favorite Tiz the Law. Franco is known for aggressive, smart rides – expect him to send East Avenue from post 12 to secure a forward position, possibly even the lead if no one else is keen.

Assessment: A front-running threat who could hang around for a share. East Avenue will likely be one of the pace setters or prompters. If he gets loose or a soft early lead, he’s shown he can carry it a long way – he almost stole the Blue Grass. However, a faster pace or pressure from multiple horses could soften him up late. At 20‑1, he’s worth a look because he has the class to compete. The Derby often rewards horses that can avoid traffic by being near the front; East Avenue fits that bill. Whether he can stay the 10 furlongs is the big question. We might see a scenario where he’s in front at the quarter pole but gets overhauled in deep stretch by the stronger stayers. For exotics, we recommend using him in the top two slots if you anticipate a speed bias or a moderate pace. If you foresee a hot pace, you might limit him to third or fourth, expecting him to fade late. Overall, East Avenue is a quality colt with a puncher’s chance – he just needs things his own way to deliver his best.

13. Publisher (20‑1) – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr.

Profile: Publisher might be the most unusual story in this Derby: he is still a maiden, winless in six starts. Yet here he is, thanks to a big runner-up effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Trained by Steve Asmussen (North America’s winningest trainer) and to be ridden by top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., Publisher aims to become the first horse since 1933 to win the Derby without a prior victory. Despite the zero in the win column, he clearly has talent and has been knocking on the door against tough competition.

Recent Form: Publisher earned his Derby ticket by finishing second in the Arkansas Derby to Sandman. He went off at huge odds that day and surprised many by closing strongly to grab the place spot. Prior to that, he had minor placings in other stakes (third in the Rebel Stakes, etc.), always showing late interest but unable to seal the deal. It seems each race he runs out of ground or finds one better. The good news is he’s steadily progressing – his Arkansas Derby was his career-best. Asmussen has managed him carefully, and he’s coming into the Derby fresh and fit.

Pedigree: Sired by Tapit, there’s no doubting stamina – Tapit has sired multiple Belmont winners but famously no Derby winners (yet). This colt might help break that trend. Publisher’s dam is by Galileo, a legendary European stamina influence. This pedigree leans strongly toward classic distances. It’s possible that Publisher is only now coming into his own and will peak at the Derby distance. In fact, the pedigree is so strong that one wonders if he’s just been a late bloomer who needed more ground all along.

Connections: Steve Asmussen, a Hall of Famer, has the “never won the Derby” monkey on his back (0-for-26 so far)​. He’s openly said it’s the race he wants the most. Publisher is an unconventional bullet in his chamber, but Asmussen knows Churchill Downs well and wouldn’t enter this colt if he didn’t believe in him. Irad Ortiz Jr., arguably the world’s best jockey right now, picks up the mount​. That’s a big vote of confidence – Irad doesn’t ride in the Derby unless he thinks the horse has a shot. Look for Ortiz to work out a mid-pack trip from post 13, keeping Publisher in striking range.

Assessment: A historical longshot but not an impossible one. The fact Publisher has never won is a turn-off for many bettors, but in terms of raw ability, he fits with these. He’s run speed figures comparable to the mid-tier contenders and is bred to improve as the distances increase. If you believe in “destiny” angles, note that Asmussen came painfully close in 2022 with Epicenter (2nd) and 2011 with Nehro (2nd) – maybe this oddball maiden is the one to get him over the hump. Still, one has to be realistic: Publisher needs to improve again to win, and he’ll have to work a perfect trip and finally learn how to pass that last horse in deep stretch. At 20‑1, he’s a fantastic exotic inclusion – we particularly like him filling out trifectas and superfectas at a price, given his tendency to come running late. A win would be a true Cinderella story (and break a 90+ year drought for maidens), but crazier things have happened in the Derby. If you’re a believer in the Asmussen-Ortiz combo, take a shot – you might get rewarded with one of the Derby’s most unforgettable moments if Publisher shocks the world.

14. Tiztastic (20‑1) – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario

Profile: Tiztastic is the second of Steve Asmussen’s duo and comes in with a stronger resume than stablemate Publisher. This dark bay colt was the winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, where he unleashed a big late run to upset some better-fancied rivals. Tiztastic has been a bit under the radar nationally, but he’s shown a penchant for finishing fast. With veteran jockey Joel Rosario aboard, he’s poised to bring that late kick to Churchill Downs.

Recent Form: After a so-so start to the year (he was fourth in the Lecomte Stakes), Tiztastic blossomed in New Orleans. In the Louisiana Derby, he sat far back early behind moderate fractions and then came charging in the stretch to win going away. That win gave him 100 points and a Derby berth. He skipped any further preps, coming into Kentucky off a six-week rest – a pattern Asmussen used with Epicenter (who won the 2022 Louisiana Derby and then ran 2nd in the Kentucky Derby). His speed figures jumped in his last race, and if he can repeat or build on that, he’s right in the mix.

Pedigree: As the name suggests, he hails from the “Tiz” line – his sire is Tiznow, a two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner known for toughness and stamina. On the dam side, he’s got Pulpit and Storm Cat influences. This is a balanced pedigree that leans slightly toward stamina. He definitely has the genetic tools to get 1¼ miles. Notably, Tiznow’s progeny can be late bloomers (much like Tiznow himself who peaked at 3 and 4). Tiztastic appears to be following that pattern, improving with maturity and distance.

Connections: Joel Rosario has a Derby win (Orb in 2013)​ and is known for his skill with late-running horses. He’s a great fit for Tiztastic, who will need to work out a trip from far back. Starting from post 14, Rosario has options – he can drop back without worry of being pinned on the rail, and then try to navigate through or around horses late. Steve Asmussen, as mentioned, is very hungry for a Derby win​. This horse might actually be his better shot on paper, given the proven stakes victory and strong finishing style.

Assessment: A formidable closer with a live chance. If you believe the Derby pace will be solid and set things up for the backmarkers, Tiztastic is one you must consider. He “promises to bring a late kick” to Derby 151 – that’s exactly what you want in your exotics when many horses will be tiring. A scenario where Tiztastic rallies into the trifecta (or even exacta) at juicy odds is quite plausible. Can he win outright? Yes, if everything goes perfectly – he’ll need to weave through traffic and time his move just right, and hope Journalism or Sovereignty get softened up enough. One minor worry: Churchill Downs’ surface can be less friendly to deep closers compared to Fair Grounds. But Rosario knows how to overcome that (Orb came from well back). At 20‑1, Tiztastic is among the better value plays. He’s proven at nine furlongs, bred for ten, and coming off a top performance. We view him as a strong contender to hit the board, and an upset win isn’t out of the question if the race falls apart late.

15. Render Judgement (30‑1) – Kenny McPeek / Jockey: TBA

Profile: Render Judgement wasn’t expected to be in this race until fate intervened. When Florida Derby winner Tappan Street scratched due to injury, Render Judgement drew into the field. Trained by Kenny McPeek, this colt has had an unconventional prep schedule, including turf races. He doesn’t have a graded stakes win, but he did enough to be an also-eligible and now gets his shot. Render Judgement is a long-striding closer whose connections know how to shock the world – McPeek won last year’s Derby with a longshot and is the reigning Derby champ (with Mystik Dan at 18‑1)​.

Recent Form: His key effort was a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Virginia Derby on turf last fall. This spring, McPeek tried him on dirt and synthetic in minor stakes with some moderate success (hitting the board but not winning). He was always on the cusp of qualifying, but needed a defection to get in. The good news is he has raced as far as 1³/₁₆ miles (in the Turfway Park Battaglia, where he closed for third), so stamina appears to be a strength. The challenge is he’s been a notch below the top horses on raw speed.

Pedigree: By Kitten’s Joy (elite turf sire) out of a Smart Strike mare, Render Judgement is bred more for grass or synthetic and longer distances. In fact, his half-brother might be a European stakes horse (such is the turf influence). This helps explain why he excelled in the Virginia Derby on turf. However, note that Kitten’s Joy also sired 2015 Derby runner-up Optimizer, and his progeny can handle dirt on occasion. The pedigree suggests endurance – 1¼ miles should be within reach – but the surface is a question.

Connections: Kenny McPeek pulled off a rare feat in 2024 by winning the Derby and Oaks in the same year​. He’s proven he can get a horse to peak on Derby day, even a longshot. McPeek is also known for unconventional training moves, so Render Judgement coming in via the back door is on-brand. The jockey assignment is yet to be confirmed (since he just drew in a few days before the race). It will likely be a rider without another Derby mount, potentially someone like Corey Lanerie or James Graham – a capable Churchill rider who can follow instructions. Given McPeek’s experience, the jockey will be instructed to take back and make one late run.

Assessment: A real outsider, but one that could outrun expectations if chaos ensues. Let’s set expectations: for Render Judgement to hit the board, a lot needs to go right. He’ll be coming from the clouds, and he’ll need to negotiate traffic expertly. On pure speed, he’s a cut below most of this field. However, the Derby often has a way of producing a few shock results in the minor placings (think Golden Soul at 34‑1 finishing 2nd in 2013, or Mr. Big News at 46‑1 finishing 3rd in 2020). Render Judgement fits that mold of the overlooked closer who could pick up pieces late. He’s by no means a win candidate on paper, but if you’re playing superfectas, you might throw him in the 4th-place slot hoping for a meltdown scenario. After all, McPeek knows how to light up the tote – his Derby win last year and his prior big upsets (like Sarava in the 2002 Belmont at 70‑1) remind us not to dismiss him. Ultimately, Render Judgement is running for pride and a dream. A finish in the top half of the field would be a great achievement. Anything more, and it would truly be lightning striking twice for Team McPeek.

16. Coal Battle (30‑1) – Lonnie Briley / Reylu Gutierrez

Profile: Coal Battle is a blue-collar battler who made a name by dominating on the Fair Grounds/Oaklawn circuit this winter. Trained by 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, Coal Battle swept three consecutive Derby prep races (including the Rebel Stakes G2), becoming a hometown hero in Louisiana and Arkansas. He finally met defeat when third in the Arkansas Derby, but by then he had more than enough points to secure his spot. This colt has a bit of the “people’s horse” vibe – from a small barn, with modest beginnings, now taking on the blue-bloods on racing’s biggest stage.

Recent Form: Through January and February, Coal Battle could do no wrong. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year’s Day, the Southwest Stakes (G3), and then the Rebel Stakes (G2) – a three-race win streak that had him atop the Derby leaderboard for a time. His style was to press the pace and grind his competition into submission. In the Arkansas Derby, however, the magic wore off slightly; he attended the pace but lacked his usual punch, finishing third behind Sandman and Publisher. Some say the quick turnaround from the Rebel took its toll, others say the competition caught up. Briley chose to rest him after that (skipping the Lexington or other last preps) and focus on recovering for Derby day.

Pedigree: Not the flashiest pedigree, but effective. He’s by Battalion Runner, a stallion who didn’t make the Derby but had talent (ironically trained by Pletcher). The dam is a mare by Mineshaft. The pedigree is laden with dirt and distance influences – in fact, it’s a bit old-school, with names like A.P. Indy and Deputy Minister in there. It’s not commercially fashionable but suggests a sturdy horse who can run classic distances. Coal Battle has indeed shown he can handle 1⅛ miles; 1¼ is within reach if he’s good enough.

Connections: Lonnie Briley is enjoying the ride of his life. A veteran trainer in the Louisiana circuit, Briley has never had a Derby starter until now. This is a Cinderella story for him. Jockey Reylu Gutierrez, one of the rising stars in the riding ranks, retains the mount. Gutierrez has been aboard for all of Coal Battle’s big wins and knows the horse intimately. He’ll likely try to break alertly from post 16 and secure a forward position, maybe stalking the leaders in the second flight.

Assessment: A tough-as-nails longshot who shouldn’t be underestimated. Yes, the Arkansas Derby loss exposed some vulnerability, but with time to rebound, Coal Battle could return to his winning ways. On his best day, he’s a fighter who can slug it out with top horses. He may not have the brilliance of Journalism or Sovereignty, but he has determination and seasoning. Watch him in the paddock and post parade – he’s a very composed colt (the benefit of an extended campaign). At 30‑1, he’s worth inclusion in exotics if you believe his spring swoon was just a blip. The likely scenario has him stalking the pace in the second tier, and if the leaders come back, he’ll try to capitalize. To actually win, he’d need to find a bit more turn of foot than he’s shown – finishing third in Arkansas after a perfect trip is a concern. But for underside of trifectas or superfectas, Coal Battle is the kind of gritty horse who can absolutely stick around for a piece. He represents the hard-knocking regional form, and sometimes that form translates just fine at Churchill (recall Country House and War of Will coming via the Fair Grounds route in 2019). Keep him in mind as a “heart over hype” pick – the kind of horse who might outrun the fancy resumes on sheer willpower and give his connections a thrill.

17. Sandman (6‑1) – Mark Casse / José Ortiz

Profile: Sandman has emerged as a major player in this Derby, especially after his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse and ridden by José Ortiz, this gray colt has been ultra-consistent. He had some tough luck early in the season (traffic trouble in prior races), but he put it all together at Oaklawn Park with a dominating performance. Sandman brings a strong closing kick – he is typically a mid-pack runner who accelerates around the far turn and down the stretch. His owners include West Point Thoroughbreds and social media influencer Griffin Johnson, so he’s got a modern flair and plenty of fan support.

Recent Form: In three Derby preps at Oaklawn, Sandman went from very good to excellent. He was second in the Southwest (G3) and third in the Rebel (G2) after some troubled trips. Everything clicked in the 9-furlong Arkansas Derby: he sat about 5 lengths off the pace, then powerfully circled rivals on the far turn to seize command and won by 2½ lengths. He earned a 101 Brisnet Speed rating for that effort, one of the highest figs in this field. Since then, he’s been training sharply at Churchill. He’s fresh, confident, and clearly on an upward trajectory.

Pedigree: Sandman is royally bred for this. His sire, Tapit, needs no introduction – a leading sire with tremendous influence (though seeking his first Derby winner). His dam, Distorted Music, is by Distorted Humor and hails from a female family that produced Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide. So there’s class and stamina throughout. Notably, Tapit offspring have won multiple Belmonts (12 furlongs), so the 10 furlongs here pose no issue. This pedigree also often yields horses that improve with age and distance, exactly what Sandman is showing.

Connections: Trainer Mark Casse has done almost everything in racing except win the Kentucky Derby. He’s had notable Derby runners (Classic Empire was 4th in 2017). Casse is a Hall of Famer in the U.S. and Canada and is eager to add a Derby to his résumé. Jockey José Ortiz is an Eclipse Award winner making his 10th Derby start. His best finish was 2nd on Good Magic in 2018. Ortiz is excellent at timing the move on a closer, and he fits Sandman well. Post 17 is a bit wide, but with his running style, Ortiz can drop in and find a lane mid-pack without much issue.

Assessment: A top contender who offers value at 6‑1. Sandman checks a lot of boxes: he’s got a high speed figure, he’s proven at the Derby distance (winning at 1⅛ miles with authority), and he’s shown he can overcome adversity (his Southwest and Rebel efforts, where he still hit the board despite issues). One could argue he’s the now horse. The key to his race will be pace – he doesn’t need a meltdown, but he does need an honest tempo to run at. Starting from post 17, he must avoid losing too much ground on the first turn; Ortiz will likely tuck him in just behind the first wave of horses. If Sandman gets a clear path turning for home, watch out – he has a serious closing drive, as evidenced by that 101 figure and visually by the way he inhaled the leaders at Oaklawn. Given his pedigree, he might even improve with the extra distance. Many bettors see him as the biggest threat to Journalism (or even a co-favorite in their eyes), and it’s easy to see why. We consider Sandman a must-use in all wagers and a strong win candidate. His combination of improving form and stamina makes him one of the most compelling horses in Derby 2025.

18. Sovereignty (5‑1) – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado

Profile: Sovereignty is the pride of the Florida prep circuit and the second choice on the morning line at 5‑1. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, this bay colt brings an enviable record: he won the Fountain of Youth (G2) and was runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1). He’s a versatile runner who can stalk or come from mid-pack, making him tactically dangerous. Sovereignty also has a liking for Churchill Downs – he impressed under the Twin Spires last fall, which gives him a bonus in familiarity. He’s a top-tier contender with proven class and consistency.

Recent Form: Sovereignty really made waves at Gulfstream. In the Fountain of Youth, he sat a few lengths off a hot pace and then rolled past everyone to win decisively. In the Florida Derby, he had a bit of a wide trip but still closed strongly to finish second behind the now-sidelined Tappan Street. He showed he can handle adversity and still run big – he beat everyone else comfortably. Earlier, as a 2-year-old, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs (showing his affinity for the track). His formline is rock solid; he’s fired in every single start.

Pedigree: His pedigree is a lovely blend of speed and stamina. He’s by Into Mischief, one of the leading sires who gives plenty of speed and athleticism (Into Mischief sired the 2020 Derby winner Authentic, who went wire-to-wire). Sovereignty’s dam is Crowned, a mare by Bernardini​. Bernardini adds classic stamina, and Crowned herself brings some class (her family has produced stakes horses). This mix has yielded a horse with tactical speed (Into Mischief) and the ability to carry it (Bernardini). Given this, 1¼ miles should be within his wheelhouse, though it’s fair to note that Into Mischief’s progeny sometimes top out at 9 furlongs. In Sovereignty’s case, the way he finishes suggests he’ll handle the extra distance just fine.

Connections: Trainer Bill Mott is a Derby winner (Country House via DQ in 2019)​ and is known for his patient, masterful conditioning. He has Sovereignty peaking at the right time. Mott’s not one to ship a horse unless it’s doing well, so the decision to run at Churchill at 2 (and winning) was deliberate. Jockey Junior Alvarado has been Mott’s go-to rider and is very familiar with Sovereignty. Alvarado has had five Derby mounts; his best finish was fourth on Frosted in 2015​. He rides Churchill well and will have options from post 18 – likely to drop in mid-pack and avoid getting hung wide. Worth noting: Sovereignty drew the same post 18 that produced last year’s shock 80-1 winner (though that’s more trivia than form).

Assessment: A key win candidate with arguably the most well-rounded profile in the race. Sovereignty has tactical speed, which means he shouldn’t be compromised by any particular pace scenario – he can adapt. He’s handled a large field at Churchill before (winning with 11 rivals in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and 12 in the Fountain of Youth). He’s proven on fast and wet tracks. In short, there’s a lot to like. At 5‑1, he offers a bit more value than Journalism, and some bettors will prefer him as their top pick. One angle: he already beat Sandman last year at Churchill (in that KY Jockey Club Stakes, where Sandman was 3rd). That suggests he can take Sandman’s measure again, though both have progressed since. If one envisions a scenario where Journalism gets pressured and falters, Sovereignty is a prime candidate to pick up the pieces. We expect him to be right there at the finish. He’s a must-use in exactas with the favorite and a very logical win bet if his odds float up closer to 6‑1 or 8‑1. The only minor knock: he hasn’t won beyond 1⅙ miles yet, but the way he finished in the 1⅛-mile Florida Derby alleviates much of that worry. All signs point to Sovereignty being in the trifecta, and it would be no surprise if he wears the roses when all is said and done.

19. Chunk of Gold (30‑1) – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry

Profile: Chunk of Gold is a gray colt with a grinding late run, representing the Turfway Park and Fair Grounds form lines. Trained by Ethan West and ridden by Jareth Loveberry, he punched his Derby ticket by finishing second in both the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2)​. He’s a horse that doesn’t win often but always seems to be in the frame. With a name like Chunk of Gold, he’s a sentimental choice for some, but he’ll need to step up his game to actually strike gold in the Derby.

Recent Form: Consistency has been his hallmark. Chunk of Gold started the year on Turfway’s synthetic track with a maiden and allowance win, then took a shot in Fair Grounds’ Risen Star Stakes. He outran his odds to get second there, closing well. He replicated that effort in the Louisiana Derby, again rallying to be a clear runner-up​. In both races, he couldn’t catch the winner (Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby), but he fought on well and was clearly best of the rest. He skipped any further races to train up to the Derby. One nice aspect: he has experience in large fields and doesn’t mind kickback, having run on both dirt and synthetic.

Pedigree: He’s by Graydar, a son of Unbridled’s Song, and out of a mare by Closing Argument. This is a modest pedigree and perhaps why he’s been a bit under the radar. It’s more oriented towards middle distances – Graydar won the 9-furlong Donn Handicap, and Closing Argument was second in the Derby (so there is a Derby connection!). The female family doesn’t scream stamina, but it has some toughness. The fact he’s run well at 1⅛ miles twice suggests he can handle 1¼ with the right setup. He’s a heavier-bodied horse (true to his name) and can carry condition well – distance might actually be okay.

Connections: Trainer Ethan West is making his Derby debut​. A young trainer based in Kentucky, West has done a fine job campaigning this colt smartly. Jareth Loveberry, the jockey, nearly tasted Derby glory last year, finishing second on Two Phil’s​. Loveberry proved adept at navigating a big Derby field and will aim to do the same here. His experience last year should serve him well. Expect Loveberry to let Chunk of Gold settle toward the back from post 19 and then make a sustained run through the far turn – similar tactics to what worked at Fair Grounds.

Assessment: A reliable closer who could pick up a minor piece with his steady rally. Chunk of Gold has yet to show a winning instinct at the graded level, which is why he’s 30‑1. However, exotics players shouldn’t ignore him. He has a knack for clunking up into the exacta or trifecta in prep races, and the Derby could be another example. If a few of the fancied horses don’t fire or get a bad trip, Chunk of Gold could absolutely hit the superfecta at big odds. To dream of a win is probably too ambitious – he’s been second-best repeatedly against lesser fields, so beating all 19 rivals here seems out of reach. But hitting the top four? Not impossible, especially if the pace is hot. He’s a grinder – one of those horses who will keep coming in the stretch when others are quitting. Loveberry’s confident riding style suits him. All told, Chunk of Gold is a useful longshot for the bottom of tickets. He’s not flashy, but sometimes the Derby superfecta has a horse just like this that plods along for fourth at 30 or 40-1 (filling out a huge payout). Keep him in your trifecta/superfecta considerations, but temper expectations beyond that.

20. Owen Almighty (30‑1) – Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano

Profile: Breaking from the far outside, Owen Almighty brings blazing early speed to the Derby. Trained by Brian Lynch and partnered with reigning Derby-winning jockey Javier Castellano​, this chestnut colt earned his spot by winning multiple stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, including a wire-to-wire score in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He’s a colt that likes to dictate terms on the front end. The big question is how far he can carry that speed – the Derby distance will test his limits, as even his trainer acknowledges.

Recent Form: Owen Almighty has three stakes wins to his name, two of which came in gate-to-wire fashion. He won the Pasco Stakes (7f) easily, then stretched out to two turns and captured the Sam F. Davis (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in succession. In those races, he showed grit – in the Tampa Bay Derby, he set a strong pace and held on by a diminishing margin. His times were solid, though not as fast as the elite preps. After Tampa, he tried the Wood Memorial in New York, where he tired to finish off the board (his one poor showing). Lynch decided to freshen him and point to Churchill rather than try another prep. With rest and a string of sharp works at Keeneland, Owen Almighty appears back to his energetic self.

Pedigree: He’s by Kantharos, a sire known for speed influences, out of a mare by High Cotton. This pedigree leans heavily toward speed/mile ability. It’s not the type you expect for the Derby distance; instead, it’s a pedigree you’d love for races up to 1⅛ miles. Indeed, in the Wood Memorial (9f) he came up empty late, suggesting stamina limitations. But sometimes heart and conditioning can eke out a bit more. It’s worth noting he’s a May foal (one of the youngest in the field), which sometimes means they keep improving through the spring. Perhaps he’s gained some maturity since early April that could help.

Connections: Trainer Brian Lynch, an Australian by birth, is making just his second Derby appearance​. He had Classic Causeway in 2022, who similarly was a Tampa speed horse that faded in the Derby. Lynch is hoping for a better fate this time. The booking of Javier Castellano is notable – Castellano finally got his first Derby win last year on Mage​, and now he’s back with a horse who might try to emulate Mage’s mid-pack style…except Owen Almighty is naturally much quicker early. Castellano will have to use that early foot from post 20 to clear over. He’s savvy enough not to get caught extremely wide; expect Javier to send aggressively and try to tuck in by the first turn, perhaps sitting 1st or 2nd.

Assessment: A pacesetter with a puncher’s chance to hang on for a share. History has shown that winning the Derby wire-to-wire is difficult (though Authentic did it in 2020). Owen Almighty will likely be in front or pressing Rodriguez and others early. If somehow he’s allowed to click off moderate fractions, he could stick around much longer than people think – he’s shown he can carry speed around two turns and fight on. The more probable scenario is that the combination of distance and pace pressure wilt him in the stretch. We might see Owen Almighty leading for 3/4 of a mile, still there at the mile, and then getting overhauled late on the far turn or upper stretch. Castellano’s experience might help him measure out the speed more evenly. At 30‑1, he’s not the worst stab for those who think the track might favor speed or that everyone will be afraid to go and he can clear. But it’s a risky proposition given the depth of closers in this field. We recommend using Owen Almighty only in limited ways – maybe as a frontrunner who hangs on for fourth in supers. A win would require a perfect trip and a slow pace, which seems unlikely given the lineup. Still, as the field’s presumptive leader, he will play a pivotal role in the race shape. Keep an eye on him – if he’s loose on an easy lead, it could throw a wrench in everyone else’s plans. Otherwise, look for Owen Almighty to run courageously before yielding when the real running begins late.

Final Thoughts: The 2025 Kentucky Derby offers a classic showdown between proven heavyweights (Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman) and hungry longshots looking to write a Cinderella story. From the international intrigue of Japan’s duo to the redemption arcs of trainers like Asmussen and Baffert, this Derby has it all. For bettors, the key will be structuring bets that respect the favorites’ strength while capitalizing on the race’s chaos for exotics. Whether you side with the chalk or swing for the fences, enjoy what looks to be a deep and competitive “Run for the Roses” – and may your picks cross the wire first!