2026 Saudi Cup Betting Guide: Tips, Odds & Expert Picks
Six runnings of the Saudi Cup. Four winners at double-digit odds or higher. One local horse at 113-1. A defending champion who might be the best dirt horse on the planet — and the race still might not go his way.
The 2026 Saudi Cup goes off on Saturday, February 14 at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh, carrying its customary $20 million purse ($10 million to the winner) and a field of 13 drawn from four countries. Defending champion Forever Young — who followed up last year's victory with the Breeders' Cup Classic — comes in as the horse to beat. But this race has made fools of favourites before, and the supporting cast includes two Baffert runners still hunting for their trainer's elusive first Saudi Cup win, a dark horse off an elite Clark Stakes victory, and local runners with course form the internationals don't have.
Nearly $40 million in total prize money across the two-day card. Here's how to approach it.
Quick Betting Overview
- Race: 2026 Saudi Cup (G1) — 1,800 meters (~1⅛ miles) on dirt, left-handed, one turn
- Date: Saturday, February 14, 2026
- Venue: King Abdulaziz Racecourse, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Purse: $20,000,000 ($10M to the winner)
- Expected field: 13 runners from Japan, USA, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar
- Defending champion: Forever Young (JPN) — Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai
- Key angle: Favorites have a poor record — four of six winners returned $28+ on a $2 bet
- Longshot history: The 2022 winner Emblem Road paid $229.20. This race loves a bomber.
Saudi Cup Historical Results (2020–2025)
Understanding the history of this race is critical to finding value. The Saudi Cup has been a graveyard for short-priced favorites — only Maximum Security (later disqualified) and Forever Young have won at single-digit odds.
| Year | Winner | Trainer | Jockey | $2 Win | Time | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Forever Young | Yoshito Yahagi | Ryusei Sakai | $6.60 | 1:49.10 | 🇯🇵 Japan |
| 2024 | Senor Buscador | Todd Fincher | Junior Alvarado | $28.80 | 1:49.50 | 🇺🇸 USA |
| 2023 | Panthalassa | Yoshito Yahagi | Yutaka Yoshida | $34.10 | 1:50.80 | 🇯🇵 Japan |
| 2022 | Emblem Road | Mitab Almulawah | Wigberto Ramos | $229.20 | 1:50.53 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia |
| 2021 | Mishriff | John Gosden | David Egan | $41.60 | 1:49.59 | 🇬🇧 UK |
| 2020 | Midnight Bisou* | Steve Asmussen | Mike Smith | $4.40 | 1:50.59 | 🇺🇸 USA |
*Maximum Security crossed the line first in 2020 but was disqualified in August 2024 following an investigation into trainer Jason Servis. Midnight Bisou was elevated to winner.
Read that column of payouts again. $229. $42. $34. $29. The average $2 win payout across all six runnings is $57.45. Strip out the Emblem Road outlier and it's still north of $23. This is a race that systematically punishes bettors who grab the obvious favourite and wait for the cash. The winners have come from Japan, America, Saudi Arabia, and Britain — and the only connecting thread is that most of them weren't the horse everyone expected.
Track & Race Analysis
King Abdulaziz Racecourse — The Dirt Track
The Saudi Cup is run over 1,800 meters (approximately 1⅛ miles) on the main dirt track at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. The course is a left-handed oval with a circumference of 2,000 meters, featuring 500-meter back and home straights. The Saudi Cup starts from a chute at the top of the course and involves one sweeping left-hand turn before the long stretch run home.
Widely regarded by international trainers as one of the finest dirt surfaces in the world, the King Abdulaziz dirt track rides fair and true. It's 24 meters wide, giving plenty of room for runners to find their position without being squeezed.
What Wins Here?
- Pace is king — but closers can pounce. The long 500-meter home straight is a genuine test of stamina. Front-runners who dominate American one-turn miles can get found out here. In 2024, Saudi Crown led deep into the stretch but was collared by the closing Senor Buscador. In 2025, Romantic Warrior surged to the lead off the turn only for Forever Young to reel him in on the wire.
- Tactical speed wins. The ideal trip is to sit just off a contested pace and produce a sustained run from the top of the stretch. Panthalassa (2023) was the exception — he led wire-to-wire — but the typical winners stalk and pounce.
- International form translates. Japan leads the winners' table with three victories (Panthalassa, Forever Young twice including the Derby). The USA has two (Midnight Bisou, Senor Buscador), and Saudi Arabia and UK one each. This is a truly global race.
- Track record: Forever Young's 2025 time of 1:49.099 stands as the fastest in race history, indicating the surface is getting quicker as the track matures.
Pace Scenario for 2026
Looking at the confirmed entries, the pace setup could be kind to closers once again. There aren't obvious speed merchants in the Saudi Cup field — the front-running types are more likely to be found in the Dirt Sprint. Expect a moderate early tempo with a hard-fought stretch battle, which is exactly how Forever Young likes it.
Trainer & Jockey Angles
Yoshito Yahagi — The King of Riyadh
Yahagi is the only trainer to have won the Saudi Cup more than once — Panthalassa in 2023, Forever Young in 2025 — and he also sent out Shin Emperor to take the 2025 Neom Turf Cup. There's a pattern here. Yahagi doesn't ship to Riyadh casually. He identifies which of his horses will handle this specific surface and these specific conditions, gives them a tailored preparation, and arrives with intent. His Saudi Cup record is 2 wins and a stack of prize money from supporting races. When you see a Yahagi runner on this card, treat it seriously.
Bob Baffert — The Best Trainer Never to Win This Race
Three Saudi Cups. Three seconds. Charlatan in 2021, Country Grammer in both 2022 and 2023 — each time doing everything right until the final 200 metres. "I've lost a lot of money in the last 200 meters of that race," Baffert said after entries were released. He's sending two runners this year (Nysos and Nevada Beach) and plans to attend in person for the first time in years, which tells you something about how badly he wants this. The 500-metre home straight has been his graveyard. The question is whether 2026 is the year his horses stop getting collared on the wire.
Steve Asmussen
Asmussen trained Midnight Bisou (the now-official 2020 winner) and has consistently entered horses in this race. His 2026 runner Magnitude arrives off a strong Clark Stakes (G2) win over Dubai World Cup victor Hit Show — solid credentials.
Brad Cox
Cox sends Bishops Bay, a Cigar Mile (G2) winner who was recently purchased for $1.3 million by King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Sons. Cox also has Saudi Derby contender My World in the pipeline. He's a trainer who knows how to prepare horses for big international assignments.
Jockey Watch
Ryusei Sakai rode Forever Young to victory in 2025 and earned over $11 million that Saudi Cup day alone (two wins and a fourth across three rides). He's the rider to beat again. On the American side, watch for whoever draws the mounts on the Baffert pair — these have been the most consistent placed runners in race history.
2026 Saudi Cup: Key Contenders
Entries have been confirmed as of January 30, 2026. Here's our assessment of the likely field:
🇯🇵 Forever Young — The One to Beat
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi | Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Last start: 1st, Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)
The reigning champion arrives in career-best form. Since a third in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic, Forever Young has won four straight including the Tokyo Daishoten (G1), the 2025 Saudi Cup, and the 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic. He would be the first horse to win two Saudi Cups. He's proven on this track, this distance, and in these conditions. The 5-year-old son of Real Steel is the clear class of the field, but at what price? If he's odds-on, the value may lie elsewhere.
🇺🇸 Nysos — Baffert's Best Chance?
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Last start: 1st, Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2)
Won the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) before stepping up here. The son of Nyquist has tactical speed and class. The step up to 1⅛ miles on dirt is the question mark — he's proven on turf at a mile but this is a completely different test. Baffert has placed second three times here; can Nysos break the curse?
🇺🇸 Magnitude — The Dark Horse
Trainer: Steve Asmussen | Last start: 1st, Clark Stakes (G2)
Beat Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show in the Clark — that's elite-level form. The Not This Time colt has been improving steadily and the one-turn 9-furlong trip should suit. At likely double-digit odds, he could offer the best value in the race.
🇺🇸 Bishops Bay — New Connections, Fresh Start
Trainer: Brad Cox | Last start: 1st, Cigar Mile (G2)
Won the Cigar Mile impressively before being snapped up for $1.3 million by Saudi connections. Now running for King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Sons — local owners with deep pockets and motivation. Cox is a world-class trainer and the Uncle Mo colt has the quality, but this is a big step up in class.
🇺🇸 Nevada Beach — Baffert's Other Arrow
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Last start: 2nd, Laffit Pincay Jr. (G2)
Goodwood Stakes (G1) winner by Omaha Beach. Ran second to stablemate Nysos last time. The two Baffert runners give the barn a tactical advantage — they can split approaches. Don't dismiss.
🇺🇸 Rattle N Roll — Saudi Experience
Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Last start: 1st, Tinsel Stakes (Listed)
Fifth in the 2025 Saudi Cup, so he's been here and handled the track. Part-owned by Sharaf Al Hariri, who was part-owner of 2024 winner Senor Buscador. Won the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup last year — the key local prep. Course experience is a genuine edge.
🇶🇦 Tumbarumba — UAE Form
Trainer: Hamad Al Jehani | Last start: 2nd, Al Maktoum Challenge (G1)
Ran second in the Al Maktoum Challenge in Dubai — solid form reference. The Oscar Performance gelding is battle-hardened in Gulf racing conditions and could outrun his odds.
🇯🇵 Luxor Cafe & Sunrise Zipangu — Japanese Support Acts
Luxor Cafe (by American Pharoah) comes off a poor Champions Cup run but has talent. Sunrise Zipangu makes history — trained by Kyoko Maekawa, Japan's first-ever female handler to have a runner in the Saudi Cup. Both are outsiders but Japan dominates this race for a reason.
🇸🇦 Local Hopes: Mhally, Star Of Wonder, Ameerat Alzamaan
Don't forget — Emblem Road won at 113-1 in 2022 as a locally trained horse. Mhally was third in the 2025 Saudi Derby and earned his spot through a local qualifier. Star Of Wonder is unbeaten in two Riyadh starts and won the Listed King Faisal Cup last month. At huge odds, these could spring a shock.
Supporting Card Highlights
The Saudi Cup card is packed with high-quality supporting races. Here are the key bets to watch:
Neom Turf Cup (G1) — $3,000,000 — NEW Group 1 Status!
Upgraded to Group 1 for the first time in 2026, with a purse increase to $3 million. Shin Emperor, the 2025 wire-to-wire winner for Yahagi/Sakai, returns to defend. He'll face Facteur Cheval, Royal Champion, and Survie among others. Shin Emperor's dominant front-running style makes him the one to beat again.
1351 Turf Sprint (G2) — $2,000,000
The unique 1,351-meter turf sprint is always competitive. Former winner Annaf returns alongside Royal Ascot winner Lazzat and several American turf sprinters including Time To Dazzle. Comanche Brave from the Donnacha O'Brien yard adds European firepower.
Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) — $2,000,000
Baffert's Imagination, second in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, anchors the American challenge. Hong Kong's Self Improvement and a strong Japanese contingent will make this fiercely contested. A race that often produces big-price exotics.
Saudi Derby (G3) — $1,500,000 + Kentucky Derby Points!
Now part of the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby, offering 20 points to the winner. American-trained My World (Cox), Obliteration (Asmussen), and Acknowledgemeplz (McPeek) face local hero Al Haram, who romped by 7+ lengths in the Saudi 2000 Guineas. Japanese 3-year-olds Satono Voyage and Best Green could follow the Forever Young playbook — he won this race as a 3-year-old in 2024.
Red Sea Turf Handicap (G2) — $2,500,000
The 3,000-meter marathon attracted a classy entry led by three Joseph O'Brien runners including Melbourne Cup runner-up Goodie Two Shoes. Willie Mullins sends Absurde, and returning 2025 runner-up Epic Poet has unfinished business.
Betting Strategy for the 2026 Saudi Cup
1. Respect the History — Don't Blindly Back the Favorite
The numbers scream this: four of six Saudi Cup winners went off at double-digit odds or higher. Even when the favorite has run well (Romantic Warrior in 2025, White Abarrio in 2024), something else has come from the clouds. Forever Young will likely be a short price — possibly odds-on given the Breeders' Cup Classic win. If he drifts to 3/1 or better, he's a play. Shorter than that, and you're fighting the trends.
2. Exotics Are Where the Money Is
Look at these historical exotic payouts:
- 2025 Trifecta: $13.90 (Japan swept the top 3)
- 2025 Superfecta: $766.40
- 2024 Exacta: Senor Buscador over Ushba Tesoro — massive
- 2022: Any exotic involving 113-1 Emblem Road was life-changing money
Build exotic tickets that include Forever Young but spread wide underneath. Key the Japanese and American runners in your exactas and trifectas — the race has been dominated by horses from these two nations.
3. The "Baffert Bridesmaid" Angle
Baffert runners have been second three times. If you believe the curse continues, use Nysos and Nevada Beach underneath in exactas — they're likely to run into the frame without winning. If you think 2026 is the year Baffert finally gets it done, the value could be in boxing one of his with Forever Young at the top.
4. Don't Ignore the Locals
Emblem Road's 113-1 shocker in 2022 was the ultimate lesson: locally trained Saudi horses who have thrived on this surface can't be dismissed. Star Of Wonder is unbeaten at the track. Mhally knows the course from his Derby run. At massive odds, they belong in your exotic tickets.
5. The Supporting Card Offers Value
The Saudi Cup isn't the only betting race on the card. The 1351 Turf Sprint and Dirt Sprint often produce overlays because the focus is on the main event. The Saudi Derby, now a Kentucky Derby qualifier, adds a new angle — American trainers are sending serious contenders who may be overbet given the "Road to the Derby" hype.
6. Timing Your Bets
Odds on the Saudi Cup can shift dramatically in the final 48 hours as stable confidence becomes known. Early prices on longshots tend to shrink once the field is finalized. If you fancy a price about an outsider, get on early. For the favorites, patience usually pays — you'll get better value on the day.
Our Early Leans
- Win: Forever Young is the most likely winner but could be a poor value bet at short odds. We lean toward a small win bet on Magnitude if he's 10/1 or better — the Clark Stakes form stacks up.
- Exacta: Forever Young over Nysos, Magnitude, and Bishops Bay
- Trifecta: Forever Young / Nysos / Magnitude / Rattle N Roll / Bishops Bay — spread wide in the minors
- Bomb play: Star Of Wonder in superfectas at a price. Unbeaten locally, huge odds.
We'll sharpen these picks as post positions and morning line odds are released. In the meantime, check the community tips page closer to race day — international races like this are where crowd intelligence surfaces angles the form guides miss.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the 2026 Saudi Cup?
The Saudi Cup is the feature race on Saturday, February 14, 2026, and is typically run in the evening local time (AST, UTC+3). Exact post time will be confirmed closer to race day. For US viewers, that's typically early-to-mid afternoon Eastern Time.
How much is the Saudi Cup purse?
The Saudi Cup carries a $20 million purse, with $10 million to the winner. Prize money pays down to 10th place. The full two-day meeting offers nearly $40 million in total prize money.
Where can I bet on the Saudi Cup?
The Saudi Cup is available on most major international wagering platforms. US bettors can wager through ADW (advance deposit wagering) platforms that carry international racing. Pool betting (win, place, exacta, trifecta, superfecta) is available through the global commingled pools.
Can Forever Young win two Saudi Cups?
No horse has won two Saudi Cups — the race has only existed since 2020. Forever Young would be the first to accomplish this feat. His form heading into 2026 (Breeders' Cup Classic winner, track record holder here) makes him the clear favorite to do it.
This article will be updated with the full confirmed field, post positions, morning line odds, and final selections as they become available. Bookmark this page and check back before February 14 for our complete race day guide.
