Breeders' Cup 2024: Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Tips

The Breeders' Cup marks the culmination of the U.S. horse racing season, bringing together the best horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the world for one of the sport's most prestigious events. Let’s break down some smart betting strategies and give you key picks to consider.

Key Races to Watch

1. Breeders' Cup Classic (Nov 2)

Top Contenders:

• White Abarrio: Now one of the top favorites for the Classic with odds around 4-1, he’s been on fire, particularly after winning the Whitney Stakes.
• Saudi Crown: A rising star with 12-1 odds, Saudi Crown offers value and has the speed to surprise the field.
• Derma Sotogake: Another long shot with potential, Derma Sotogake is sitting at around 20-1 odds, making him an intriguing pick for exotic bets.

Betting Tip: White Abarrio is a favorite, so focus on value bets like Saudi Crown or Derma Sotogake for bigger payouts in exactas or trifectas.

2. Breeders' Cup Turf (Nov 2)

Top Contenders:

• Auguste Rodin: Aidan O'Brien’s top horse, winner of the Irish Derby and a key player on the international turf circuit.
• King of Steel: Finished strong in European races like the St. Leger, making him a powerful contender.
• Mostahdaf: A dominant force on the international scene, particularly in the Middle East and Europe.

Betting Tip: European horses historically dominate this race. Back horses like Auguste Rodin or Mostahdaf, but don't overlook King of Steel for exactas.

3. Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Nov 2)

Top Contenders:

• National Treasure: With multiple Grade 1 wins, National Treasure is a clear contender for the Dirt Mile.
• Zandon: Known for strong late rallies, but his 2024 form has been inconsistent.
• Senor Buscador: A strong closer who has excelled in international races like the Saudi Cup, making him a solid value bet.

Betting Tip: While National Treasure is a favorite, consider backing Senor Buscador for an upset with his late-closing speed.

4. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Nov 2)

Top Contenders:

• In Italian: The top U.S. turf filly with a dominant record in Grade 1 races.
• Warm Heart: A proven European star from Aidan O'Brien’s stable, with major wins in Europe.
• Above the Curve: Another strong European contender who has been consistently performing well in major turf races.

Betting Tip: In Italian is a strong favorite, but Warm Heart offers value, especially given the European dominance in turf races.

General Betting Strategy

• Mix Favorites and Long Shots: Balance your bets by backing strong favorites like White Abarrio in the Classic and adding value bets like Saudi Crown or Derma Sotogake for higher payouts.
• Turf Races: European horses typically excel on turf, so prioritize international contenders in the Turf and Filly & Mare Turf races.
• Consider Exotics: Betting on exactas or trifectas, especially with a mix of favorites and long shots, can lead to bigger returns.

Underdog Picks: Worth a Bet?

History shows that ignoring underdogs at the Breeders' Cup can cost you. Here's a sleeper for 2024: Saudi Crown in the Classic. With 12-1 odds, he’s got the speed and form to potentially upset the heavyweights.

Breeders' Cup Fun Facts

• Biggest Upset: In 1993, Arcangues shocked everyone by winning the Classic at 133-1 odds, the biggest longshot in Breeders' Cup history.
• The International Advantage: In the Breeders' Cup Turf races, European horses have historically been dominant, winning over 70% of the time!

Final Thoughts

Throughout its history, the Breeders' Cup has delivered unforgettable moments. From Zenyatta's dramatic 2009 Classic win, becoming the first mare to defeat males in the race, to Goldikova's unprecedented three consecutive victories in the Breeders' Cup Mile (2008–2010), these champions have etched their names into racing lore. American Pharoah capped his legendary career by winning the 2015 Classic, becoming the first horse to secure the "Grand Slam" of Thoroughbred racing.