Melbourne Cup 2024: Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Tips

The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s most prestigious horse race, known as “the race that stops a nation.” As we gear up for the 2024 edition, let's explore some key contenders and betting strategies to help you get the best out of this iconic event.

Key Races to Watch

1. Melbourne Cup (November 5)

• Top Contenders:

  • Vauban: Trained by Willie Mullins, Vauban remains a top favorite with odds around 10-1. After a disappointing 14th place in 2023, he has bounced back, including a strong Lonsdale Cup win, positioning him as a key contender for redemption.
  • Circle Of Fire: Now one of the top contenders from Ciaron Maher’s stable, Circle Of Fire enters with odds around 10-1 and boasts a recent Sydney Cup win. His solid form in staying races makes him a compelling choice for punters.
  • Absurde: Another notable runner from Willie Mullins’ yard, Absurde has performed well internationally, including a commendable 7th place in the 2023 Melbourne Cup. At odds around 12-1, he could surprise the field.

• Betting Tip: Vauban offers a secure pick, while Circle Of Fire’s staying power makes him valuable for exactas or trifectas. Including Absurde can diversify bets and increase potential payouts.

2. Lexus Stakes (November 4)

• Top Contenders:

  • Lunar Flare: Known for her stamina, Lunar Flare is a solid favorite for the Lexus Stakes, with a proven track record in longer races.
  • Athabascan: A promising long shot, Athabascan’s odds present a high reward if he finishes strong.

• Betting Tip: Favor Lunar Flare for stability, but consider Athabascan for long-shot value in exotic bets like trifectas.

3. Victoria Derby (November 2)

• Top Contenders:

  • Riff Rocket: A consistent front-runner, Riff Rocket has shown strong endurance and form, making him a popular choice in the Derby.
  • Apulia: With odds around 8-1, Apulia’s recent form suggests he’s a solid pick for exotic wagers.

• Betting Tip: Pair Riff Rocket’s reliability with Apulia’s value to balance risk and reward.

General Betting Strategy

• Balance Favorites with Value Picks: Key contenders like Vauban and Circle Of Fire are popular for good reason, but runners like Absurde offer significant value for those seeking higher payouts.
• Prioritize Stamina over Speed: The Melbourne Cup’s 3200m demands staying power. Focus on horses with proven performance in long-distance races, as endurance is crucial.
• Utilize Exotic Bets: Exactas and trifectas featuring a mix of favorites and long shots offer higher returns with increased diversity.
• Underdog Potential: Vauban may lead in odds, but Circle Of Fire and Absurde provide strong underdog potential, especially with their proven stamina.
• Use Exotic Bets: Bet on exactas and trifectas with a mix of favorites and long-shots for higher returns.

Melbourne Cup Fun Facts

• Biggest Upset: In 2015, Prince of Penzance won at 100-1 odds, making history with Michelle Payne as the first female jockey to win the race.
• The Global Appeal: The Melbourne Cup draws horses from around the world, including strong contenders from Europe, Asia, and Japan, making it one of the most competitive international races.

Final Thoughts

The 2024 Melbourne Cup is shaping up to be another thrilling event with strong international and local contenders. Whether you're backing a favorite or looking for a value bet, the race offers plenty of excitement and opportunities for savvy punters.